Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8290c95035dc912239b1d9a6fbf27447cc351d464dad83b4f41efa7f0108ddd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Tearlaments | 21c | 2,447$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 23c | 1,763$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.85 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments | 17c | 1,240$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 78c | 986.03$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tearlaments | 13c | 854.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Yandex | 78c | 629.32$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Tearlaments | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Tearlaments | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Tearlaments | 23c | 499.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 5c | 454.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Yandex | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 11c | 370.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Tearlaments | 5c | 259.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Tearlaments | 20c | 238.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Tearlaments | 19c | 238.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex | 78c | 209$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Tearlaments | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tearlaments | 16c | 171.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Team Yandex | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed Tearlaments | 14c | 140.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Team Yandex | 76c | 111.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Tearlaments | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Team Yandex | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…41f9backed Tearlaments | 20c | 98.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tearlaments | 22c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Tearlaments | 24c | 87.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…b5dabacked Team Yandex | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Tearlaments | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Team Yandex | 76c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Team Yandex | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Team Yandex | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…f64ebacked Team Yandex | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Team Yandex | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…2b72backed Team Yandex | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Yandex | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.