Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d13f28456dd16f0f1a169bf6b50f28d196c33ff5d31394a91260ea66f7df6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 43c | 334.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 271.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 111.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 19c | 93.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 68c | 90.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 90.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 48c | 69.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 52c | 63.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 50.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 49.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 48.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 51c | 44.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 42.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 41.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 39.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…ffe6backed Yes | 49c | 30.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 63c | 19.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 79c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.