Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 139.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d601e3bbc1ea863f5ce6e0dd866ee465b7519d48e41957464a7beff06ef2d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,436 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41ed…06f8backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…db6fbacked Under | 50c | 3,965$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.94 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Under | 47c | 2,826$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.86 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…9742backed Under | 46c | 1,927$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.63 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 939.21$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.73 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 54c | 725.75$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.31 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 54c | 699.89$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.06 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 54c | 545.22$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.42 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 46c | 437.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 54c | 432.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.66 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 378.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 176.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 54c | 147.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Under | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Over | 49c | 100.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 99.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 49c | 98.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 86.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 46c | 86.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Over | 54c | 80.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Over | 54c | 80.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85d…8599backed Over | 54c | 65.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 46c | 64.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…ce80backed Over | 54c | 61.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 65c | 59.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Over | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b6…3eeebacked Over | 54c | 54.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 47c | 54.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 46c | 53.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Over | 46c | 53.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 48c | 52.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…5076backed Over | 54c | 52.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 51.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…249cbacked Over | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 56c | 45.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 46c | 41.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…eeb9backed Over | 54c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…97d3backed Over | 54c | 37.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 49c | 29.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 46c | 28.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 27.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Under | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…8aa3backed Over | 46c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 139.5this page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton FlyersIllinois State Redbirds won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 119.5Under won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-7.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-3.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-6.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.