Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58fc5caf5c8c70e93893c4157261cb4474b57a494e9cedd626d7d45fc8134271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Dayton Flyers, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x663f…4cedbacked Dayton Flyers | 50c | 21,907$10,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,953.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,999.88 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 3,371$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.38 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 3,165$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.39 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 2,223$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.46 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 2,111$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.68 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 1,819$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.88 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 58c | 1,353$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.1 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 1,204$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.04 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 971.82$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 700.3$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 313.94$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 250.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Dayton Flyers | 16c | 249.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 246.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 243.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 243.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 167.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 117.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 79.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 75.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…d0debacked Dayton Flyers | 50c | 58.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 56.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 55.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Dayton Flyers | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 40.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Illinois State Redbirds | 52c | 34.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…8aa3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 71c | 25.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Illinois State Redbirds | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois State Redbirds | 68c | 17.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-7.5)this page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton FlyersIllinois State Redbirds won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 119.5Under won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 139.5Under won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-3.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-6.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.