Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82e986a2434539c21215512e8c8ba496e75acee9ce0a43ec71e41ce92ad97196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 1,068$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.36 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 650.77$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.23 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 634.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 32c | 601.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 438.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 79c | 424.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 69c | 387$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 71c | 380.88$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 71c | 331.9$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 315$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 286.32$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 56.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 66c | 46.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 78c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-08-22?Yes won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.