Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211d5a099797c6bdf8718a31adbfc9bff0bd25b04a10967d592d4de9081a8f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 4,598$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,786.77 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked No | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 2,672$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.23 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 63c | 1,395$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.2 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 59c | 999$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.41 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 815.25$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 61c | 532.1$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.98 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Yes | 43c | 465.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Yes | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 39c | 407$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.06 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed No | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 235.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 229.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 215.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.17 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…ba53backed Yes | 40c | 192.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 60c | 181.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 60c | 144.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 65c | 128.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…3ccebacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 38c | 113.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 75c | 98.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 39c | 80.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 61c | 80.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 62c | 69.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7fcdbacked Yes | 75c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 60c | 60.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 51.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…217abacked No | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…01fdbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 48c | 34.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…1642backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 44c | 27.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 53c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-08-22?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.