Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ef125ae0ae7a200dbbe71ed9fa231fda729d1a3c2ecf87a36c117ab2b39368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 305.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 71c | 300.26$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 31c | 250.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 221.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 158.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 152.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 62c | 119.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 100.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 95.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 93.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 82.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 73.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 31c | 65.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 47c | 58.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 26c | 58.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 24c | 52.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 41.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 38.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 37.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 36.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 51c | 33.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 24.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 59c | 17.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.