Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ff0b400bc352cc6b442193cb083d9b5167b3560d5c1882eef2bb92293cd1d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 366.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.42 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 44c | 314.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 72.5%100 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 31c | 138.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 40c | 121.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 120.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 88.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 68c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 76.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 32c | 76.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 75.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 74.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 61.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 58.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 55.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 30c | 50.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 30c | 49.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 44.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 26.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 43 | 83.7%36 W · 7 L | +11.8wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 23.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked Yes | 76c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 74c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed No | 73c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.