AI · resolved market
Will Apple release iPhone 17 by September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x831eda40bb3caeed5cf586e63e102e0ce9cbd5f9985408a45cfd917baf32dedd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 4,113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ce…07fcbacked Yes | 10c | 4,003$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 3,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,789$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…6c01backed Yes | 1c | 2,537$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,144$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 1c | 2,059$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Yes | 5c | 2,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,908$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 1,686$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 6c | 1,111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 3c | 846.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…2e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 843.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b89…2755backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 632$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 482.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…b37dbacked Yes | 4c | 449.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 323.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 7c | 215.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.