Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83396a49073d25cfd2a13775544060a1bd143076aac171e00e3184b2d6eccce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9f2…b4ebbacked Yes | 45c | 836.45$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 56c | 766.11$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.27 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 23c | 757.35$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…3353backed Yes | 20c | 489.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 74c | 351.36$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…9f45backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 47c | 191.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…355dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…b07ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 30c | 42.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…800dbacked No | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.