Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833cb5a999c147c9d8ad717c19039bc3314be82875072a8484a32867ddf67b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 443.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed No | 73c | 287.04$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 280.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 69c | 223.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 205.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 166.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 156.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 152$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 128.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 76c | 128.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 126.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 28c | 115.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…9004backed Yes | 12c | 106.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…932dbacked Yes | 35c | 93.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 78.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 20c | 69.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 64.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 58.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…cb1fbacked Yes | 20c | 57.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 50.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 663 | 27.8%184 W · 479 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…03c3backed No | 74c | 48.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed Yes | 29c | 48.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 28c | 44.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 31c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 201 | 27.4%55 W · 146 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 34c | 40.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…c663backed Yes | 30c | 36.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 73c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…6950backed Yes | 36c | 28.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 27.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…5bf0backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…43b9backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 70c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.