Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x853c06677df499117e1056e7d5e308cb1459c0d5facb39880ae1eb2abe619606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 3,131$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed Yes | 1c | 1,924$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 714.08$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 13c | 702.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 10c | 508.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 453.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 412.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 385.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 307.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 220.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 25c | 196.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 187.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 181.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 145.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 139.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 20c | 110.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 104.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 102.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 69.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 66.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 62.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 62.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 76c | 59.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 77c | 58.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 34c | 57.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 75c | 56.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 55.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 47.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 24c | 46.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 44.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…cb1fbacked No | 69c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 78c | 23.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 77c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.