Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234a07983603fb0b51abc291f1f50d706ad62ecbf542fde57c2a2ce8fa76c043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 2c | 1,102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 981.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 9c | 879.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 611.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked Yes | 9c | 546.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.54 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 4c | 495.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 7c | 478.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 65c | 428.71$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 9c | 382.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 365.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 68c | 354.05$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 6c | 343.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.06 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 309.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 48c | 284.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…7c75backed No | 8c | 280.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 263.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 232.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…1fd7backed Yes | 8c | 229.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.03 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 44c | 198.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 13c | 194.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…6657backed Yes | 9c | 166.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +549.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 26c | 163.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…b329backed No | 6c | 160.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 17c | 147.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 138.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 53c | 138.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 27c | 127.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 25c | 108.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25f…127bbacked No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 58c | 99.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…b18ebacked Yes | 17c | 95.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 90.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 50c | 86.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 45c | 83.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 72c | 81.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…cb1fbacked No | 39c | 77.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 40c | 76.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 60c | 75.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 74.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 41c | 74.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 68.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 57c | 66.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed No | 49c | 66.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 54c | 64.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 61.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 51c | 57.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 18c | 56.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 56.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 26c | 55.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 52c | 54.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 52.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 35c | 48.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 47.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 28c | 46.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 49c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 32.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 45c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 38c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee3…6616backed Yes | 79c | 23.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…fa96backed Yes | 55c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.