Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x845c414321a10c694d0cd8c4438627a7a98c04466990a5c312e9e234db4d18d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed Yes | 1c | 1,257$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 983.84$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.26 | 1,079 | 36.5%394 W · 685 L | +26.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 497.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 287.43$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed No | 70c | 285.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 193.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 170.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 156.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 132.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 19c | 131.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 663 | 27.8%184 W · 479 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 20c | 129.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 127.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 124.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 102.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 96.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 96.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 26c | 87.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 87.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 78.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 78.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 78.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 77.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 31c | 75.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…9004backed Yes | 20c | 74.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 75c | 64.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 74c | 63.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 60.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 78c | 59.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 57.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 57.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 32c | 55.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 28c | 50.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 25c | 48.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 22c | 47.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 43.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031e…372abacked Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 31c | 39.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 37.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 71c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 35.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed No | 69c | 34.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…d6bbbacked No | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 30.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 65c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 77c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 78c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.