NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833daa3ed49930c29bddc2fda338aacd1e964b82c2bd917eeab700e0eba1e25d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Ducks, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 29c | 944$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.53 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penguins | 71c | 693.7$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.1 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Ducks | 31c | 327.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Penguins | 70c | 255$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Penguins | 73c | 235.03$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penguins | 71c | 211.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 69c | 163.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…71fcbacked Ducks | 26c | 148$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Ducks | 28c | 147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…96c8backed Penguins | 72c | 142$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…3cc7backed Ducks | 26c | 141$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Ducks | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…7f4dbacked Penguins | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…9f8dbacked Ducks | 28c | 136$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…440cbacked Penguins | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…80b1backed Ducks | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Ducks | 27c | 133.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb561…0bf7backed Ducks | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…d223backed Ducks | 26c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…c452backed Penguins | 72c | 127$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…de63backed Penguins | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…f230backed Penguins | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…ec97backed Ducks | 27c | 123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…10f6backed Ducks | 26c | 122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…b5e4backed Penguins | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…d76cbacked Penguins | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…a6ecbacked Penguins | 74c | 116$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked Penguins | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Ducks | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Ducks | 29c | 93.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Ducks | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Penguins | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Penguins | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Penguins | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Penguins | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Penguins | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Penguins | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…2150backed Penguins | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…d8b1backed Penguins | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. PenguinsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.