NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49ef3d6d3188a9a3b84f77fa731afb2b3d1794e5c8e0a1b387ef7dcedcff6a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Penguins, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Penguins | 30c | 1,567$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.97 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Ducks | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…2546backed Ducks | 70c | 428.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Ducks | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Ducks | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb44…0df6backed Penguins | 32c | 161$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3812…0fecbacked Penguins | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cbeabacked Penguins | 32c | 158$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…7a8dbacked Penguins | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Ducks | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…bc0cbacked Ducks | 68c | 149$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…f8e9backed Ducks | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…f618backed Ducks | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…d76cbacked Ducks | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…9c8cbacked Penguins | 32c | 142$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…9da1backed Penguins | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…25ecbacked Penguins | 32c | 133$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…ea6bbacked Ducks | 68c | 133$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…08d1backed Ducks | 68c | 129$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb561…0bf7backed Ducks | 68c | 126$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 32c | 119$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 32c | 81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ducks | 67c | 42.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Ducks | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66d…6b42backed Ducks | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. PenguinsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.