CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x834754f335fe52ac97c47133a607d3b69f40ec7958ede5f6bdf3107a25c853db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Misa Esportsof Misa Esports, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports | 19c | 1,225$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Fire Flux Esports | 18c | 1,121$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Misa Esports | 36c | 291.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 64c | 226.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Misa Esports | 48c | 207.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fire Flux Esports | 14c | 150.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 62c | 145.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Misa Esports | 53c | 145.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 60c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Misa Esports | 49c | 109.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 80.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Fire Flux Esports | 52c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 66.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Fire Flux Esports | 33c | 66.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked Misa Esports | 46c | 60.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fire Flux Esports | 71c | 60.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 59.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Fire Flux Esports | 52c | 55.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Misa Esports | 53c | 54.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Misa Esports | 41c | 52.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Misa Esports | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Misa Esports | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Misa Esports | 32c | 45.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…aba8backed Fire Flux Esports | 50c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed Fire Flux Esports | 49c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 37.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Misa Esports | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…acbbbacked Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 37c | 34.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 32.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Misa Esports | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Misa Esports | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 349 | 43%150 W · 199 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…ecc4backed Fire Flux Esports | 63c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | -19.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Misa Esports | 65c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerMisa Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.