Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x834d2957ac40b3e4624ad2fb3f3361bb7e80d62471aa3692226e4b65795c01f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 35c | 206.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 18c | 141.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 138.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 110.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 57c | 88.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 73.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 71.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 70.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 28c | 67.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 62.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 52c | 56.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 51.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 71c | 34.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 68c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 65c | 31.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 43c | 30.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 74c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 28.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 22.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.