WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x836f9d88c3fd09fc33ba0ded58b4de76433b0e2bbbe6be236830552b00de4e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Skyof Indiana Fever, Chicago Sky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Indiana Fever | 0c | 18,319$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 15c | 13,191$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.42 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky | 48c | 9,535$4,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,958.47 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 8,736$4,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,356.82 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 6,815$3,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,407.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 6,606$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,271.78 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 4,494$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.93 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 4,444$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.56 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 3,255$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 2,320$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 1,812$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 1,398$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.79 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Chicago Sky | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 943.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 754.19$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Chicago Sky | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 567.49$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 522.93$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.78 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 458.57$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…260fbacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 404.83$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 254.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Indiana Fever | 20c | 251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 242.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 208$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…da7bbacked Chicago Sky | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Chicago Sky | 51c | 196.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 185.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Sky | 46c | 176$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Fever | 20c | 155.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed Indiana Fever | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 132.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Chicago Sky | 18c | 129.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 112.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 110.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 107.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Indiana Fever | 37c | 105.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Sky | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 99.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 56.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Chicago Sky | 48c | 56.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 52.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Indiana Fever | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 47.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 45.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 41.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Chicago Sky | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Chicago Sky | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Chicago Sky | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 37.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 34.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Chicago Sky | 40c | 32.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…650abacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…e8fcbacked Chicago Sky | 49c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Indiana Fever | 44c | 23.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Sky | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)this page
- Chicago Sky vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.