TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Chicago Sky, Indiana Fever
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$708,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$717,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $708,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Sky5c118,854$5,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,442.3216152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chicago Sky9c42,643$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.8710923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Indiana Fever77c36,754$28,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,336887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Chicago Sky0c33,970$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.829642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago Sky9c23,641$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.5134726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Chicago Sky13c17,900$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.259318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Chicago Sky21c15,917$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.9714353.8%77 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Chicago Sky0c12,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5762…90eebacked Chicago Sky9c11,751$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Indiana Fever76c11,436$8,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.551741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Chicago Sky12c11,157$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.636750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Chicago Sky5c9,589$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Indiana Fever79c7,144$5,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.234766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Indiana Fever64c7,086$4,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.4312144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c73…68e7backed Indiana Fever80c6,280$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.3666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Chicago Sky27c6,086$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.7621446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Chicago Sky23c5,777$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.0119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Chicago Sky21c5,627$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.3916633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Indiana Fever40c5,012$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.892839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Indiana Fever79c4,984$3,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.4823245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Chicago Sky17c4,978$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.8110634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Chicago Sky41c4,834$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Chicago Sky10c4,460$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.1644915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Sky26c4,191$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.526147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Chicago Sky2c4,190$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.931618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Indiana Fever78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.992382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Chicago Sky0c3,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Chicago Sky11c3,538$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.5210338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Sky28c3,418$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.4174942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky19c3,254$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.8340550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Sky20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever72c2,779$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.981,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf2…cec8backed Chicago Sky9c2,650$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky38c2,424$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.6385158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky37c2,389$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.7299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever56c2,281$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.7178548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Chicago Sky22c2,242$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389d…a58fbacked Indiana Fever75c2,199$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Chicago Sky34c2,122$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.064450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Chicago Sky38c1,976$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Indiana Fever80c1,887$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Chicago Sky15c1,885$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8112234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Sky33c1,804$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.4815346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Chicago Sky23c1,802$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.549139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Chicago Sky21c1,696$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.254669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+44.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Chicago Sky33c1,689$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.85538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0d…03c0backed Chicago Sky22c1,542$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Chicago Sky11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever80c1,333$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3892248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Chicago Sky36c1,316$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47514942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Chicago Sky23c1,313$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.6628140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Indiana Fever80c1,241$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1513950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Chicago Sky22c1,198$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.475431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d8…cf41backed Chicago Sky18c1,133$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Chicago Sky4c1,118$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.662015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…c093backed Indiana Fever80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Chicago Sky6c1,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.43557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15dd…11dbbacked Chicago Sky39c999.95$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.981414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-74.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Indiana Fever69c900.07$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.0710858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc667…34cebacked Chicago Sky22c845.68$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Sky20c837.25$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4541145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Chicago Sky34c831.59$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Sky19c800.54$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.146247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf224…bda7backed Chicago Sky14c719.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Indiana Fever54c716.39$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0937850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago Sky21c709.54$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.729129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky7c678.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Chicago Sky42c678.15$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.163046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Indiana Fever80c678.13$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.632958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago Sky22c665.96$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6625246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4b…1f22backed Chicago Sky23c660.06$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f9…d399backed Indiana Fever64c654.32$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.972975.9%22 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Indiana Fever73c617.48$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.484365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Chicago Sky20c605$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.959251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Chicago Sky20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Indiana Fever50c595$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2953036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13cc…962bbacked Chicago Sky11c571.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Indiana Fever57c561.04$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.6913844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8e…6fb9backed Chicago Sky2c556.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.022321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Indiana Fever68c549.68$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.689549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever79c511.42$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.432049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Indiana Fever78c511$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.441662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Sky20c508.43$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6983748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Chicago Sky6c490$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Indiana Fever80c488.75$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed Chicago Sky33c451.52$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Chicago Sky18c421.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7523234.5%80 W · 152 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Indiana Fever77c412.22$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.751872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c06…aa42backed Chicago Sky37c409.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Sky22c399.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.863053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Chicago Sky9c397.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.01568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed Chicago Sky23c383.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever80c375.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3922967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Indiana Fever80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f34…b8f2backed Chicago Sky26c371.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d53…149cbacked Chicago Sky8c370.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Sky27c366.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2832150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana Fever65c353$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1324852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Indiana Fever58c347.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x531f…778fbacked Chicago Sky25c339.94$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.