Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8375063aa4788a9b4afdd5f334a49f1412ed31fd728370ab3603837ef5f21383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 51c | 2,030$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.47 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…54b0backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…238dbacked No | 73c | 750$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988b…35aebacked No | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…f0ccbacked No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 570.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 79c | 447.48$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 56c | 427.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.41 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 43c | 296.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 246.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 189.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 169$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 29c | 154.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 148.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 147.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 78c | 128.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 127.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 12c | 119.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…19c5backed Yes | 21c | 116.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 60c | 103.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 25c | 99.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 99.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…f82abacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 64.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…4d9fbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 71c | 55.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 76c | 48.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 80c | 46.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 60c | 45.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 67c | 44.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 43.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 42.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 60c | 42.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99b…f390backed Yes | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…2b93backed No | 74c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 72c | 36.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…826bbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 73c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 64c | 25.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 60c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 68c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 73c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on February 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.