Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c7b96c01ff71f0b059e7b5de0cdccec19508772f3a3688f770be38dd595496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x449a…a3c8backed Yes | 42c | 7,900$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,582 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0883…b76dbacked No | 58c | 7,900$4,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…6adabacked No | 59c | 3,500$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…26debacked Yes | 41c | 3,500$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 63c | 720.26$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.25 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 48c | 447.14$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 53c | 377.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 37c | 330.59$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 237.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd2…f6bbbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…fbe7backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 64c | 175.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 71c | 169.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 44c | 153.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 145.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 70c | 123.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 121.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 97.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 92.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 26c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 82.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 77.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 41c | 70.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 45c | 66.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 48c | 52.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 59c | 42.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…bb6fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 75c | 36.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…826bbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 35c | 34.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 45c | 30.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 73c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 53c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 47c | 24.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 49c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…eb49backed No | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…30f0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.