Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837c527c9459b3f8c75a11dc1ec6941378331973e4d421f84c02e15a7c184710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.37 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…1365backed Yes | 2c | 697.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 644$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 458.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 403.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 320$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 76c | 289.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 232.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 35c | 212.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 180.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 73c | 176.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 158.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 149.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 146.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 144.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 58c | 142.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 22c | 135.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 134.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…0a1bbacked No | 14c | 130$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 117.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…abd9backed No | 78c | 106.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 70c | 102.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 91.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 76c | 90.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 82.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked Yes | 43c | 81.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 80.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 17c | 78.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 75.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 75.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 73.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 21c | 73.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…3efcbacked Yes | 34c | 65.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 38c | 61.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 33c | 61.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No | 73c | 53.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 22c | 52.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 48.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 61c | 46.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 41.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 64c | 40.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 35.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 37c | 35.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 34.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 76c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 33c | 33.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…94ebbacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 24.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 78c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 63c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 50c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.