Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a38a01f08e156f3efd6606dea3e7586f2e4cee83377141ffbab51de294f1859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.71 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed No | 44c | 1,398$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.91 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 19c | 893.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 73c | 890.46$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 646.17$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 24c | 485.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 48c | 443.19$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 47c | 415.69$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.96 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 19c | 406.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 400.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 314.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 262.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 228.36$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 65c | 226.23$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 219.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.16 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 68c | 215.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 27c | 212.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.71 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 196.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 66c | 189.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 185.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 16c | 183.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…0a1bbacked No | 18c | 177.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 175.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 47c | 150.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…3efcbacked Yes | 62c | 145.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 20c | 133.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 62c | 129.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…0837backed No | 79c | 125.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 18c | 122.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 116.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 22c | 112.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 112$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 110.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 109.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 24c | 107.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 23c | 96.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 40c | 90.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 75.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 27c | 74.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…ddfebacked Yes | 74c | 64.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 63.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 56.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 59c | 43.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f3…9372backed Yes | 71c | 41.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 34c | 40.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 56c | 37.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 76c | 35.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 73c | 31.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 38c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 29.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 57c | 27.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…9039backed Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 51c | 26.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 51c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 66c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 23.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 57c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 71c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…7f01backed No | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabb…9b3fbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.