Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8397bcc901e7a76c166a67b50b556d08bd93d387295ddc28d80850f15bfffdf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 3,078$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 33c | 2,123$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.73 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,929$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 976.65$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.16 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 900$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 33c | 764.74$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.74 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 34c | 725$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 12c | 696.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 33c | 605.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 33c | 599.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 451.08$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.66 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 350$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 66c | 253.82$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.34 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 67c | 244$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 30c | 179.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 42c | 158.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 149.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 25c | 141.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 33c | 109.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 70c | 105.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 74.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 72.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 33c | 60.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…849cbacked Over | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Under | 70c | 50.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 69c | 47.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 66c | 44.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 43.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 33.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…401cbacked Under | 69c | 32.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Under | 70c | 23.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…0e48backed Under | 68c | 17.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.