Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa42a616ac9a52af92b046b58ce5b7be3d9b2fcab35e82d9a10420d3221603e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Over | 50c | 3,985$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 3,496$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,036$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,762$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 1,463$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.49 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.1 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 951.1$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 893.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.25 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 28c | 809.56$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.88 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 651.16$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 22c | 600.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 395.58$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 56c | 358.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 56c | 358$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…7208backed Under | 46c | 254.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 52c | 251.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 56c | 225.71$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 207.91$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 54c | 205.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 74c | 175.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 44c | 166.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 154.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 149.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 139.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 56c | 121.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over | 56c | 109.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 56c | 107.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 68c | 103.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 55c | 44.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 55c | 43.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Under | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…472ebacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Over | 58c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.