Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3198973ac0d1ff76b818d1f9bac1c740697c0d743fea500afc7982ac91e983c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 1,211$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 61c | 822.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.77 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 661.26$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 528.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 43c | 466.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.37 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 60c | 416.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 19c | 350$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 61c | 329.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 39c | 315.03$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 67c | 260.68$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 52c | 233.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 44c | 222.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 39c | 174.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 166.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 61c | 162.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 39c | 112.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…0e83backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Yes | 45c | 66.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 57c | 64.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed No | 40c | 61.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 54c | 40.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 46c | 35.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Yes | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 52c | 25.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 80c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…0e48backed No | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 56c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.