Tennis · resolved market
Dallas Open, Qualification: Rafael Jodar vs Murphy Cassone
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ae6fc66a408ca49aae9a7572a6bbcc10fdc8a609f54d8252a7b21eb5f2e812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Cassone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Cassone | 18c | 10,987$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.74 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Cassone | 20c | 3,520$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.44 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cassone | 15c | 2,033$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.95 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Cassone | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Jodar | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Cassone | 10c | 941.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Cassone | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Cassone | 18c | 484$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cassone | 18c | 478.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Jodar | 30c | 474.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Cassone | 18c | 407$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cassone | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Jodar | 29c | 300$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.7wins | +0.58per pick | 28cpaid | +215%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cassone | 9c | 281$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Cassone | 11c | 231.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Cassone | 8c | 216.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Cassone | 18c | 190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Cassone | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Cassone | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Jodar | 79c | 96.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Cassone | 12c | 90.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cassone | 19c | 88.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Cassone | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Cassone | 17c | 70.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Cassone | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Cassone | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Cassone | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Cassone | 25c | 43.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 517 | 36.9%191 W · 326 L | -39.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Jodar | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jodar | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Jodar | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Jodar | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Jodar | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Jodar | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Jodar | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Jodar | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Jodar | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dallas Open, Qualification: Rafael Jodar vs Murphy Cassonethis page
- Jodar vs. Cassone: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Cassone: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.