Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c1dc7bc9a73389c4c3f1c118f4974973df490c80f442b19d0f5d0f5d446e86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 66c | 1,020$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.67 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 65c | 795.19$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 416.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 361.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 35c | 296.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 164.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 24c | 126.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 108.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 105.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 98.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 96.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 79.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 76.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 40c | 62.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 54c | 61.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 60.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed Yes | 49c | 59.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 43c | 55.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a338backed No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 48.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 56c | 48.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 42.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 42.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 41.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 67c | 36.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 35.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…9970backed No | 44c | 35.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 35.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 31c | 35.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…9e62backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 29.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 62c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.