MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d246aaa51c62aba32359ac7dae7e0eabb8aa3e59e46b5429b14115737d27db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 22,364$13,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,147.61 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 10,830$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,389.93 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 5,194$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.23 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 3,139$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.62 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 1,238$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.39 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 1,000$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…c49fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 427.59$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 315.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 222.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.04 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 135$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 53.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.