Tennis · resolved market
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e91547932b574c051b6c006de18f69a0657d0903365f1d2357a6a4b0497211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, Daniel Michalski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Daniel Michalski | 30c | 2,000$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.89 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide | 73c | 1,049$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Daniel Michalski | 31c | 999.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 713.02$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Daniel Michalski | 10c | 703.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 619.51$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Daniel Michalski | 6c | 613.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Daniel Michalski | 12c | 581.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530b…244fbacked Daniel Michalski | 21c | 571.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…6850backed Gustavo Heide | 67c | 522.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Gustavo Heide | 71c | 494.16$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniel Michalski | 12c | 338.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Daniel Michalski | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 277.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Daniel Michalski | 29c | 258.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…a87dbacked Daniel Michalski | 26c | 256.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 242.78$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 190.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1,022 | 57.8%591 W · 431 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Daniel Michalski | 28c | 164.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Gustavo Heide | 68c | 136.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gustavo Heide | 70c | 126.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Daniel Michalski | 30c | 124.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Gustavo Heide | 62c | 109.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 108.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Daniel Michalski | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Daniel Michalski | 37c | 102.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Gustavo Heide | 77c | 96.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 553 | 57.3%317 W · 236 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Daniel Michalski | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Daniel Michalski | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Gustavo Heide | 70c | 91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 996 | 49.5%493 W · 503 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Daniel Michalski | 24c | 82.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 77.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Daniel Michalski | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Daniel Michalski | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Daniel Michalski | 30c | 62.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Daniel Michalski | 20c | 53.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Gustavo Heide | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Gustavo Heide | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,198 | 52.4%628 W · 570 L | +28.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Daniel Michalski | 31c | 44.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Gustavo Heide | 67c | 36.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gustavo Heide | 70c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,580 | 42.3%668 W · 912 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Gustavo Heide | 61c | 27.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Gustavo Heide | 69c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Gustavo Heide | 68c | 19.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Gustavo Heide | 70c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Gustavo Heide | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalskithis page
- Gustavo Heide vs. Daniel Michalski: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.