Mls · resolved market
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f2463c570b51e145b6754d7a2abe5e596d787a37a4de83e2ec2691c4c65925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Red Bullsof Inter Miami CF, New York Red Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed New York Red Bulls | 74c | 595.25$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.77 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Inter Miami CF | 25c | 344.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked New York Red Bulls | 72c | 132.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Inter Miami CF | 27c | 76.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Inter Miami CF | 26c | 56.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Inter Miami CF | 28c | 49.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…fb68backed New York Red Bulls | 72c | 49.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Inter Miami CF | 27c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Inter Miami CF | 25c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Inter Miami CF | 25c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Inter Miami CF | 25c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…ff9ebacked New York Red Bulls | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)this page
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.