Mls · resolved market
Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c25a30be1cea5c3ade9bd6705502a2dfbde010bc5c1bc2fd7c20ee1db62e617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Over | 0c | 5,780$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Under | 47c | 3,064$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 7c | 2,354$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…be89backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 1,922$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.72 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 34c | 1,602$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.14 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 68c | 1,541$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.02 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 713.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 30c | 550$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 52c | 507.29$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 470.85$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.04 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 49c | 329.63$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Under | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 47c | 259.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 236.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 224.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 23c | 161.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 40c | 149.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 40c | 149.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 62c | 140.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 62c | 140.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 137$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 34c | 136.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 34c | 130.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 28c | 127$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 72c | 127$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 40c | 124.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 113.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 62c | 109.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 29c | 105.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 103.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 32c | 103.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 59c | 101.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 64c | 98.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 65c | 91.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Under | 64c | 86.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 31c | 84.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 62c | 82.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 63c | 81.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 63c | 81.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 79.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Under | 52c | 76.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 34c | 70.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 34c | 70.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 69.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Under | 66c | 69.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 72c | 65.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…b078backed Under | 63c | 51.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 34c | 42.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 34c | 42.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 35c | 39.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 35c | 39.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 34c | 37.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 61c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…3c32backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 70c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 63c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5this page
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.