Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f8e3e3429e27a4ce4c2bfdc9bf06782d15b6231061fb700c67d9861c3114a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Fils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fils | 49c | 1,248$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Fils | 45c | 1,165$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.17 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fils | 2c | 898.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Minaur | 55c | 868.18$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Minaur | 51c | 481.51$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Fils | 45c | 460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.59 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Minaur | 48c | 359$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Minaur | 55c | 334.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Minaur | 55c | 223.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Minaur | 41c | 204.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 246 | 43.9%108 W · 138 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Fils | 52c | 174.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fils | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Minaur | 58c | 130.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…8fc7backed Minaur | 58c | 119.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Minaur | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…bfd7backed Minaur | 55c | 101.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Minaur | 54c | 82.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Minaur | 60c | 79.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…5ecbbacked Minaur | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Fils | 45c | 73.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Minaur | 43c | 63.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Minaur | 59c | 59.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Minaur | 51c | 55.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Minaur | 49c | 54.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Fils | 56c | 53.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…09d6backed Minaur | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…ee49backed Minaur | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Minaur | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Fils | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Minaur | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)this page
- Minaur vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Arthur FilsMinaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs FilsMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.