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Tennis · resolved market

Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minaurof Minaur, Fils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$669,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$717,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe39d…e3dcbacked Fils27c422,391$115,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,960.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Minaur73c175,000$127,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,75022037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Minaur80c130,385$103,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,436.3480938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Minaur73c46,116$33,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,535.92,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Minaur75c41,080$30,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,367.182,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Minaur74c18,865$13,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,941.242,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Minaur78c18,544$14,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.732286.4%19 W · 3 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minaur73c18,351$13,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,947.0665647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Minaur70c14,304$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.948851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Fils21c13,613$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.371,69450.5%856 W · 838 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minaur73c13,516$9,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.0411,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Fils11c9,844$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.0612313.8%17 W · 106 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Minaur77c8,256$6,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.3613260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minaur73c8,064$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.128,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Minaur73c6,426$4,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7353268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Fils24c6,222$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.1478552.9%415 W · 370 L+22.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Fils28c5,987$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70035247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78e0…375bbacked Fils28c5,208$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.332055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Fils20c5,070$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.9628439.1%111 W · 173 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Minaur72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b7…00a0backed Minaur71c4,629$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.381323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Fils2c4,460$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.082,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Minaur71c4,286$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.741,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf41…5562backed Fils25c4,055$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.753135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Fils23c3,478$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80033336.9%123 W · 210 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Fils2c2,780$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Minaur74c2,713$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.4536968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fils21c2,634$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.587,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Minaur74c2,058$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.33,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Minaur72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56049852.4%261 W · 237 L+29.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Fils20c1,831$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.212450.8%63 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fils23c1,785$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.121,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Minaur73c1,675$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.722,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Fils30c1,649$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b0…02c6backed Fils1c1,615$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23807.5%6 W · 74 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Minaur80c1,600$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.745457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Fils27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4051,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Fils30c1,470$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44155646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Minaur79c1,403$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5823969.9%167 W · 72 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Fils20c1,398$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.666439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Minaur72c1,371$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.8315862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1e…b911backed Minaur74c1,369$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.885354.7%29 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Fils25c1,342$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9510739.3%42 W · 65 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Minaur75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.331,74250.2%875 W · 867 L+31.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3801…b2ccbacked Fils26c1,306$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fils22c1,163$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3834842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Fils10c1,060$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.619757.9%77 W · 898 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fils24c1,034$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.354,09039.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L+95.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Minaur70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Minaur80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20018863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Fils21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027154.2%147 W · 124 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Fils24c935.87$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.616344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Minaur79c880.47$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.96648.5%32 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x241a…a9c8backed Minaur72c803.9$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.27248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b79…4f89backed Minaur75c797.89$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.47520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb9…f6b3backed Fils26c780$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.81926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Fils23c681.75$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.876140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Fils27c666.73$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8853058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a3…14f4backed Minaur75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.674557.8%26 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Minaur76c659.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0710756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52d…927ebacked Minaur75c644.67$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761b…fea6backed Minaur75c643.85$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa2…4320backed Fils25c577.49$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5753…fa31backed Fils2c556.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Minaur73c546.03$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0316665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Minaur78c539.98$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.89567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Minaur76c538.99$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.581,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Minaur80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10060055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Fils9c479.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4233326.4%88 W · 245 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Fils22c472.73$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Minaur73c465.83$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6184736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Minaur72c461.34$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3311943.7%52 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Minaur74c457.54$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5437744.3%167 W · 210 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked Minaur80c444.38$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.881291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick72cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85fb…7c3abacked Minaur80c406.46$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.461850%9 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Minaur79c404.21$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2113560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Minaur70c404$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.421,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Fils25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Minaur78c383.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3314475%108 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Minaur80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Fils20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Fils25c349.96$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4943243.1%186 W · 246 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Fils21c341$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.611,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Minaur75c307$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7532050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Minaur76c303.23$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.449143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Fils22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6642141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…c36abacked Fils24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722250%11 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Fils20c297.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2916132.3%52 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Fils9c295.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7112722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Fils29c295.27$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.437330.3%113 W · 260 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Fils23c295$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8521338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Fils22c289.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.551338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Fils23c275.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.361,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Minaur75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6716968%115 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Fils25c257$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.259247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc05e…c64dbacked Fils18c255.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.951030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…6405backed Minaur79c253.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.295156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Fils22c247.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.533341.4%138 W · 195 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x600f…a8aabacked Minaur79c219.39$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.075100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc55d…9d2dbacked Minaur73c219.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.225056%28 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.