Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83fd8426e63d21c9a776ba013face2f1d0d66d702811d832f417e3c84f950712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 8,006$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.4 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 5,174$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 59c | 4,010$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.7 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 3,575$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 2,200$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.92 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 451$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 57c | 431.92$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 50c | 310.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.34 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 296.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 44c | 230.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 42c | 161.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…7f89backed Under | 42c | 137.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 44c | 125.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 59c | 111$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 42c | 100.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 63c | 76.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…a112backed Under | 44c | 51.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd8…a344backed Over | 57c | 41.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Under | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 28.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Under | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 42c | 25.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 42c | 24.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.