CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs STATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84002432cbd63aee48c160bff037a8c1394f75fedaffe6c8409bee680e292a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof ex-RUBY, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 44c | 2,219$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.87 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 47c | 1,494$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.13 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY | 73c | 1,299$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed STATE | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed ex-RUBY | 26c | 999.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 27c | 975.37$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed ex-RUBY | 54c | 929.99$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.79 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…a735backed STATE | 28c | 650$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 244 | 29.5%72 W · 172 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked ex-RUBY | 57c | 546.25$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.17 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ex-RUBY | 70c | 431.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…8c5fbacked STATE | 7c | 378.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 343.83$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked STATE | 27c | 327$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed ex-RUBY | 50c | 291.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 285.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 270.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed ex-RUBY | 56c | 261.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed ex-RUBY | 46c | 205.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed STATE | 37c | 181.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-RUBY | 49c | 168.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked STATE | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked ex-RUBY | 67c | 146.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked STATE | 46c | 118.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed ex-RUBY | 72c | 114.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked STATE | 56c | 105.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked STATE | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed STATE | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed ex-RUBY | 59c | 98.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed ex-RUBY | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed STATE | 28c | 95.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY | 47c | 93.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed STATE | 28c | 91.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 392 | 39.8%156 W · 236 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed ex-RUBY | 40c | 86.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed STATE | 50c | 86.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed STATE | 51c | 84.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed STATE | 47c | 82.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked STATE | 25c | 81.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 171 | 50.3%86 W · 85 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked STATE | 48c | 77.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked STATE | 61c | 77.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed STATE | 55c | 70.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed STATE | 35c | 68.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed STATE | 44c | 65.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…180ebacked ex-RUBY | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked STATE | 57c | 56.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed STATE | 26c | 55.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bd…12cabacked STATE | 30c | 50.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed STATE | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 28c | 49.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ex-RUBY | 73c | 49.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed ex-RUBY | 73c | 48.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked STATE | 28c | 47.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed ex-RUBY | 65c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed ex-RUBY | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed STATE | 50c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed ex-RUBY | 75c | 34.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 159 | 65.4%104 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed STATE | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUBY | 46c | 23.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed ex-RUBY | 49c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed STATE | 56c | 22.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d57…3015backed ex-RUBY | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed ex-RUBY | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…5a82backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed STATE | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked STATE | 74c | 14.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs STATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.