NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841618e0f4b8a147134deddc5f08e1df3a55a9d8f30b4a5fe2efe5338f0626d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,423$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.82 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 57c | 1,119$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 58c | 427.59$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.59 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…0afcbacked Over | 43c | 386$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…3902backed Over | 43c | 372$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 21c | 361.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 335.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…d5f1backed Over | 43c | 316$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…76c6backed Over | 43c | 265$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7981…fd97backed Over | 43c | 265$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…ba41backed Under | 57c | 195$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…7fdebacked Under | 57c | 192$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…a37fbacked Under | 57c | 189$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2404…938cbacked Under | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…d6a1backed Under | 57c | 173$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6230backed Under | 57c | 173$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…065abacked Under | 57c | 171$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6890…308ebacked Under | 58c | 171$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 165.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…5d9dbacked Under | 57c | 164$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 101.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 72.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 54c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.