NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe111e64b26fb86aa4439c75b641e4193ba8843280c979edd98d84e666aa9b7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Islanders, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Islanders | 36c | 3,269$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.88 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…9742backed Flames | 64c | 2,707$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Islanders | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 34c | 287.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Flames | 66c | 282.55$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Flames | 65c | 242$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Islanders | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Flames | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Flames | 64c | 152.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flames | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flames | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Flames | 65c | 103.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Flames | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Islanders | 46c | 87.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Flames | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Islanders | 36c | 82.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Islanders | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flames | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Islanders | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Flames | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Islanders | 36c | 38.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flames | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.