NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df702e2378bf09914f98f0164ae45c1a07aa8784cf56943071be3c4cf587a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,903 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.15 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 55c | 2,704$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.2 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 610.66$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.76 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 573.33$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.33 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 527.27$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.78 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 272.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 250.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 194.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 47c | 187.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 183.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 51c | 135.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…1088backed Under | 43c | 134.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 111.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 55c | 110.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Over | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 99.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under | 50c | 75.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 55c | 71.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 70.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 45c | 51.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 36c | 46.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 55c | 32.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 50c | 24.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Flames vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.