Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8416c9c2506f07710cbccf7fbc9f5c55efaeebcdf0104bb584a68dd2e5ed8ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HULIGANIof Virtus.pro, HULIGANI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 6,596$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked HULIGANI | 63c | 5,476$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed HULIGANI | 63c | 880$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked HULIGANI | 64c | 340.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…8d05backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 292.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Virtus.pro | 37c | 232.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked HULIGANI | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 197.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed HULIGANI | 62c | 176.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…10bcbacked HULIGANI | 65c | 152.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 133.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 116.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI | 64c | 113.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked HULIGANI | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed HULIGANI | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed HULIGANI | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…bd18backed HULIGANI | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Virtus.pro | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…5afbbacked HULIGANI | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed HULIGANI | 53c | 53.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Virtus.pro | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked HULIGANI | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 47.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked HULIGANI | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed HULIGANI | 70c | 39.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked HULIGANI | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed HULIGANI | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 144 | 66%95 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed HULIGANI | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 29.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed HULIGANI | 65c | 29.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 18.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHULIGANI won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerHULIGANI won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.