TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, HULIGANI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$373,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,287 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87da…53d1backed Virtus.pro61c48,045$29,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,676.6396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro60c22,592$13,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,025.831,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed HULIGANI10c17,963$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.5351049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed HULIGANI40c13,360$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,410.426540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked HULIGANI39c12,146$4,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,698.483647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked HULIGANI39c12,099$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,686.4289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Virtus.pro60c11,475$6,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.081,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked HULIGANI17c10,504$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.6632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed HULIGANI40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Virtus.pro60c7,696$4,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.6224246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Virtus.pro62c6,509$4,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.8921158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed HULIGANI39c6,466$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.0131248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Virtus.pro72c6,078$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.1771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked HULIGANI28c6,003$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.8441242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed HULIGANI38c5,952$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.385244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed HULIGANI19c5,118$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.363036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Virtus.pro72c4,834$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.5853764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked HULIGANI2c4,768$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.333116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Virtus.pro70c4,632$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40138855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed HULIGANI35c4,260$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked HULIGANI38c3,869$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed HULIGANI39c3,809$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.47152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed HULIGANI36c3,569$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.61,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed HULIGANI39c3,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36569644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked HULIGANI35c3,349$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.311,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked HULIGANI7c3,123$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.961,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed HULIGANI22c3,040$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.9250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed HULIGANI36c2,956$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.6360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked HULIGANI35c2,755$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.381,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked HULIGANI39c2,207$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.79643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Virtus.pro65c2,147$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.6779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed HULIGANI31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62088539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed HULIGANI39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed HULIGANI1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed HULIGANI38c1,851$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.435737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked HULIGANI22c1,843$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.561,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Virtus.pro65c1,730$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.516746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI33c1,595$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.141,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked HULIGANI2c1,588$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8522031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked HULIGANI14c1,548$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Virtus.pro66c1,516$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.1234667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Virtus.pro63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5555253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked HULIGANI11c1,494$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Virtus.pro60c1,417$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.966053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked HULIGANI43c1,381$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed HULIGANI5c1,350$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.683323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Virtus.pro79c1,339$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.130155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed HULIGANI39c1,183$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8389440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed HULIGANI37c1,151$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4128347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Virtus.pro61c1,078$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.888250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Virtus.pro77c1,078$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.0133867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked HULIGANI40c1,034$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.6595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Virtus.pro75c1,026$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.23342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked HULIGANI39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked HULIGANI39c1,023$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.6569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Virtus.pro60c1,005$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.1219643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed HULIGANI40c1,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.088046.3%37 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Virtus.pro77c1,000$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7837655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed HULIGANI40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Virtus.pro61c983.7$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.710566.7%70 W · 35 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked HULIGANI36c851.28$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1631055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked HULIGANI37c850.94$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.111,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro76c844.12$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.931,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed HULIGANI40c786.36$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.376527.7%18 W · 47 L-9.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked HULIGANI31c784.81$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed HULIGANI39c768.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7217449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Virtus.pro66c750$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed HULIGANI24c700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16818446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed HULIGANI39c670.62$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5458356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed HULIGANI33c664$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1215639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed HULIGANI40c662.01$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed HULIGANI40c610.18$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0737745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Virtus.pro67c585.07$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0723459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed HULIGANI9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked HULIGANI42c547.62$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23017349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed HULIGANI39c526$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1414943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed HULIGANI42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.851,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked HULIGANI2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Virtus.pro59c500$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20351364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed HULIGANI39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked HULIGANI41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed Virtus.pro62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1908958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Virtus.pro56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2209565.3%62 W · 33 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Virtus.pro80c493$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5634561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed HULIGANI27c481.48$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13015150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed HULIGANI38c477$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0320233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed HULIGANI42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Virtus.pro80c470.72$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1423561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked HULIGANI38c468$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8417047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed HULIGANI24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked Virtus.pro62c406.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.074540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Virtus.pro61c403.1$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2525266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Virtus.pro62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15219856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked HULIGANI40c399.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16066848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91cc…f388backed HULIGANI10c393.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed HULIGANI38c382.63$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8216152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed HULIGANI6c364.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8111353.1%60 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Virtus.pro62c355.91$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9155457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x829f…3486backed HULIGANI30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked HULIGANI35c335.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.65750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.