CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841eba38b16814c60efba9bfa2f82a03cbd37d43a4a7f3faf218da263f8489d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked fnatic | 55c | 4,605$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.89 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lilmix | 44c | 3,127$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.91 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lilmix | 1c | 1,991$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Lilmix | 23c | 1,494$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.74 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed fnatic | 71c | 713.7$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.92 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed Lilmix | 42c | 697.11$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 152 | 44.7%68 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 44c | 517.03$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.69 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Lilmix | 48c | 400$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed fnatic | 70c | 285$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cc…0927backed fnatic | 71c | 279.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…3ab3backed Lilmix | 16c | 262.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked fnatic | 79c | 245.32$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Lilmix | 35c | 225$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d6aabacked Lilmix | 17c | 213.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed fnatic | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lilmix | 30c | 194.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lilmix | 39c | 185.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lilmix | 39c | 185$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lilmix | 37c | 167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked fnatic | 74c | 164$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 401 | 37.2%149 W · 252 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed fnatic | 56c | 145$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed fnatic | 57c | 112.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lilmix | 30c | 112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Lilmix | 35c | 103.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Lilmix | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Lilmix | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Lilmix | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lilmix | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed fnatic | 75c | 91.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked fnatic | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 62cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Lilmix | 38c | 82.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Lilmix | 18c | 72.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed fnatic | 47c | 69.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…74dcbacked fnatic | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Lilmix | 36c | 61.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Lilmix | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked fnatic | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed Lilmix | 32c | 44.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Lilmix | 29c | 42.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…aca5backed Lilmix | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a0f3backed Lilmix | 30c | 38.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Lilmix | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 231 | 56.3%130 W · 101 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…c397backed Lilmix | 39c | 34.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Lilmix | 41c | 30.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…e92bbacked fnatic | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 146 | 58.2%85 W · 61 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked fnatic | 73c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked fnatic | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group Dfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)fnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.