CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39e641247fa6e5bd9df58d18adaf83b760e7fc66f65fc9f6ca0dbf85e183f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked fnatic | 69c | 3,814$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.42 | 1,007 | 52.4%528 W · 479 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked fnatic | 70c | 3,520$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.59 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lilmix | 30c | 3,037$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.44 | 3,256 | 50.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L | +97.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked fnatic | 66c | 2,833$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.38 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…98c0backed Lilmix | 34c | 2,175$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Lilmix | 34c | 1,642$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.32 | 359 | 47.9%172 W · 187 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Lilmix | 30c | 1,165$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.5 | 754 | 52.7%397 W · 357 L | +27.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Lilmix | 31c | 1,096$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 328 | 40.2%132 W · 196 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed fnatic | 69c | 1,087$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 590 | 55.3%326 W · 264 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked fnatic | 70c | 1,000$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.6 | 944 | 45.7%431 W · 513 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…73cbbacked Lilmix | 49c | 890.22$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.77 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Lilmix | 31c | 840.05$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 34c | 749.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed fnatic | 64c | 609.71$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.49 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Lilmix | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed fnatic | 68c | 583.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 1,998 | 53.7%1,073 W · 925 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Lilmix | 30c | 538.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 337 | 40.9%138 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Lilmix | 31c | 460.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked fnatic | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…49c8backed Lilmix | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Lilmix | 36c | 333.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 449 | 44.8%201 W · 248 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Lilmix | 32c | 311.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Lilmix | 34c | 309.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…284ebacked fnatic | 65c | 308$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 58 | 82.8%48 W · 10 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked fnatic | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 300 | 49.3%148 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…c2febacked Lilmix | 34c | 280.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed fnatic | 68c | 272.32$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 607 | 55%334 W · 273 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Lilmix | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,154 | 48.3%557 W · 597 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked fnatic | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…9217backed Lilmix | 33c | 233.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed fnatic | 71c | 219.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Lilmix | 33c | 213.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 384 | 44.3%170 W · 214 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed fnatic | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 309 | 49.2%152 W · 157 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed fnatic | 78c | 167.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…4169backed fnatic | 66c | 151.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Lilmix | 31c | 151.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…f778backed Lilmix | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Lilmix | 33c | 117.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed Lilmix | 31c | 113.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Lilmix | 34c | 113.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2,205 | 47.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked Lilmix | 33c | 104.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed fnatic | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…c078backed fnatic | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed fnatic | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed fnatic | 67c | 99.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 982 | 48.3%474 W · 508 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Lilmix | 25c | 87.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 912 | 45.8%418 W · 494 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…60cfbacked Lilmix | 31c | 82.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked fnatic | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 382 | 69.4%265 W · 117 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed fnatic | 77c | 77.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…a099backed fnatic | 71c | 74.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 260 | 46.5%121 W · 139 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Lilmix | 24c | 72.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 308 | 41.6%128 W · 180 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked fnatic | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 651 | 49%319 W · 332 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…4414backed fnatic | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked Lilmix | 30c | 69.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…a791backed Lilmix | 31c | 64.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 165 | 54.5%90 W · 75 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed fnatic | 67c | 57.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 673 | 50.1%337 W · 336 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Lilmix | 20c | 56.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Lilmix | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…3342backed fnatic | 65c | 53.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Lilmix | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…fda0backed fnatic | 66c | 50.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…16b2backed Lilmix | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1b8abacked fnatic | 64c | 45.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed fnatic | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked fnatic | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked fnatic | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed fnatic | 63c | 37.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 607 | 53.9%327 W · 280 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 31c | 35.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed fnatic | 63c | 35.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Lilmix | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed fnatic | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 519 | 49.1%255 W · 264 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed fnatic | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 409 | 71.9%294 W · 115 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed fnatic | 70c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed fnatic | 72c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…fe85backed fnatic | 78c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked fnatic | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked fnatic | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group Dfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.