CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a57bece4b813a9d6e8e615027aa0931d6e19e0cbb8df3f47da287d2338cff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Lilmix | 10c | 6,697$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.6 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lilmix | 10c | 3,399$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.46 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked Lilmix | 9c | 3,139$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Lilmix | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf48…36c2backed Lilmix | 9c | 2,663$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.67 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68a4…856ebacked Lilmix | 11c | 2,650$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 10c | 2,480$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lilmix | 9c | 2,266$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Lilmix | 10c | 2,240$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…9cb5backed Lilmix | 9c | 2,169$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Lilmix | 11c | 2,141$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.51 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Lilmix | 8c | 2,073$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lilmix | 10c | 1,782$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.81 | 809 | 42.3%342 W · 467 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d6aabacked Lilmix | 9c | 1,658$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…8c5cbacked Lilmix | 10c | 1,300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Lilmix | 9c | 1,276$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Lilmix | 12c | 1,262$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…e868backed Lilmix | 11c | 1,251$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Lilmix | 7c | 1,164$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Lilmix | 10c | 1,056$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Lilmix | 10c | 902.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…3ab3backed Lilmix | 10c | 850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Lilmix | 6c | 713.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Lilmix | 10c | 704.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Lilmix | 14c | 699.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Lilmix | 15c | 620$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…1da3backed Lilmix | 12c | 461.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Lilmix | 4c | 454.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Lilmix | 5c | 414.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…9206backed Lilmix | 7c | 368$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Lilmix | 11c | 365.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Lilmix | 11c | 348.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Lilmix | 8c | 317.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Lilmix | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Lilmix | 9c | 289.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Lilmix | 11c | 284.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Lilmix | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Lilmix | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Lilmix | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…95c9backed Lilmix | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 547 | 32.2%176 W · 371 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…3220backed Lilmix | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…7817backed Lilmix | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 35.5%91 W · 165 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…fc9bbacked Lilmix | 10c | 138.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Lilmix | 12c | 105.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Lilmix | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed fnatic | 80c | 31.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5)fnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.