Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84637a9578dd282e9ea6c38f4bee5c69be1e5342bbe9acb5df3a06c6773ae98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,458$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 443.79$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 78c | 352.1$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 16c | 303.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 40c | 230.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 25c | 226.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 142.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 135.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 61c | 118.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 117.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 109.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 61c | 106.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 61c | 97.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 44c | 96.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 66c | 96.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 41c | 80.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 78c | 78.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 76.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 73.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 66.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 63.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 36c | 62.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 58c | 62.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 40c | 61.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 58.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 57.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 52c | 54.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 61c | 51.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 68c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 42c | 45.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 38c | 44.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 44.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 43.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 45c | 43.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 42.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 37.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 33c | 34.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 70c | 34.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 64c | 32.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 60c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 42c | 31.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 64c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 28.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 59c | 28.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 63c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 57c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 59c | 21.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked No | 64c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 18.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 17.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.