Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84988814366d319e194b34a1bd0dc56e30cc4183aa06f6bbae1271514e2ce09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 604.77$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 51c | 514.41$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.87 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 59c | 285.23$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 55c | 274.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 270.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 258.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 248.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 209.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 31c | 168.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 56c | 161.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 41c | 154.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 53c | 148.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 75c | 129.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 40c | 118.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 109.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 30c | 108.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 45c | 106.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 36c | 106.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 45c | 105.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 97.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 55c | 88.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 35c | 80.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 46c | 77.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 31c | 75.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 21c | 63.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 60.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 50c | 59.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 31c | 59.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…d4a5backed Yes | 67c | 57.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 66c | 55.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 71c | 55.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 62c | 54.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 45c | 52.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 55c | 49.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 29c | 44.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 45c | 44.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 43.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…a9aebacked Yes | 65c | 43.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 41.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 44c | 39.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 43c | 37.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 58c | 35.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…d07fbacked No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 46c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 77c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 64c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 56c | 22.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5947backed No | 68c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…7ec3backed No | 65c | 15.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 77c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.