Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58c4b8dd37906faaa63adfd243e14dc766eef4824cd0162dac09de57e088663b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed Yes | 0c | 22,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 54c | 1,732$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.68 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,165$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 550.69$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 461.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 51c | 395.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 298.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 248.75$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 31c | 228.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 214.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 213.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 29c | 205.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 156.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 33c | 129.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 32c | 128.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 119.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 117.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 114.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 30c | 112.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 109.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 31c | 104.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 36c | 103.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 35c | 95.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 93.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 39c | 88.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 60c | 87.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 80.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 56c | 78.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 40c | 76.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 74.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 33c | 73.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 27c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 31c | 68.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 56c | 67.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 66.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 66.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 61.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 31c | 60.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 79c | 56.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 55.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 53.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…8907backed Yes | 25c | 53.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 53.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 29c | 48.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 47.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 32c | 45.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 44.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 33c | 42.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 45c | 41.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…8147backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 54c | 39.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 71c | 38.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 37.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 69c | 37.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5947backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 33c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 33.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 33.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 32.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 31.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 26.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 76c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 51c | 22.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…98e2backed No | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 79c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 71c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 79c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.