MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849bfb5c0854ca00690e4227f6f69a747fcdb6227ae1a30a48ac9f38853442ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 13,457$5,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,220.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 9,455$5,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,752.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 4,900$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 394.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.07 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 385.17$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 79c | 290.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 206.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 201$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 166.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 95.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 78c | 57.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 78c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 29.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 21.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.