MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458e15c28e0cd14ce0f0ac56d73328ae5b60148d5826df760775861361b2babc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 21,392$9,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,765.51 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 9,573$5,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,260.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 55c | 4,400$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 2,255$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.91 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 2,011$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,582$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.07 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.5 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 945.27$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.44 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 55c | 907.2$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.96 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 585$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 55c | 561.53$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.84 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 527$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 488.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.9 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 44c | 460.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.92 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 445.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 429.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 57c | 264.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 255.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 219.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 163.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 161.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 148.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 37c | 140.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 60c | 84.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 37c | 78.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 43c | 78.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 76.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 37c | 65.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 50c | 61.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 49.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 37c | 39.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 74c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.